UPGC AT WORK

As UPGC moves forward, collecting and disseminating data, we are developing models based on historic data that appear to be quite accurate in their ability to predict storage holding and disappearance numbers. The value of these models is that they can take the Nov. 1^st storage holding number and predict what storage holdings will look like on June 1^st. When used by producers it is a tool which indicates when surpluses or shortages may exist, and thus allows for informed marketing decisions. UPGC is now able to extend this model to the point of taking the planted acreage number and extending the predicted production numbers though Nov. 1^st until June 1^st of next year. There is a variable that cannot be built into these models, Mother Nature, models are all developed on averages, and if weather, or other unusual events take place they cannot accounted for. To illustrate this, last year’s Nov. 1^st 2009 storage holding number for Eastern Canada was 48,522,000 cwt., the model predicted that on June 1^st 2010 there would be 9,272,000 cwt. in storage; in fact June 1^st numbers indicated that there were 8,428,000 cwt., a difference of 844,000 cwt., this is easily attributed to the extra cullage seen from P.E.I. through to Ontario this past winter. The industry knew in November that cullage would be higher than usual, and thus it would have been easy to assume that disappearances would have been heavier than the averages in the models would suggest. The significance of knowing this and  in being able to predict the June 1^st holdings number is that it can then be compared against previous June 1^st holdings, and used as a guide for marketing decisions. A look at the previous June 1^st numbers show that in only 1 of the last eight years June 1^st holdings were as low as they were predicted to be for this past year. Our challenge at this point is to break these down into segment specific numbers (process, fresh, seed) so that an even more accurate data is available.